Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 96.5%
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9
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
2 set 24, 04:01 UTC9 set 26, 06:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will there be any genetic modification which substantially reduces suffering in vertebrates by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. attempt a large scale Solar Radiation Modification geoengineering project before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill we know if gravity is fundamentally quantum by the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
Gravity Modification Experiment Description and Results: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383609891_Gravity_Modification_Experiment_Description_and_Results_presented_at_APEC_Propulsion_Conference_83124
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 97% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate??
- Will Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate? dovrebbe risolversi il 9 settembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Will Brandenburg & Doyle's Gravity Modification Results Replicate??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Gravity Modification Experiment Description and Results: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/383609891_Gravity_Modification_Experiment_Description_and_Results_presented_at_APEC_Propulsion_Conference_83124