Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 88.8%
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto26 giu 24, 06:46 UTC3 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
[Carlini questions] 6+ month pause on AI development
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PolymarketRegole
Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES.
- Minor vandalism or protest-related damage would not qualify.
- Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES if there is clear intentionality to attack a data center to oppose AI development, even if the attack is stopped before causing significant damage (e.g., if attackers are stopped after breaking in but before destroying equipment).
- Or if like the air strike gets destroyed or misses lol
- Update 2025-11-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Cyberattacks: Only physical attacks count for resolution.
- Ransomware or similar cyberattacks that don't cause physical damage would not qualify.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 89% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030??
- Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030? dovrebbe risolversi il 3 gennaio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will any data center be attacked to oppose AI development by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Eliezer Yudkowsky stated, in regards to AI risk, "Be willing to destroy a rogue datacenter by airstrike." Is this going to happen? If an AI-aligned datacenter is attacked, this question resolves YES.