Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 19:45 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeBy Jan 1st 2030 39%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
9
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 ore fa
Obsoleto24 mar 25, 02:29 UTC2 gen 30, 00:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria:
- This pause could come in the form of a government mandate, court order (e.g., declaring models copyright infringement), blackmail, organized protest, etc. What matters is the outcome: new higly-capability models are not being trained because of some external force has prevented them.
- Motivation and Context:
- Several researchershave called for a "pause" on AI development, in order to allow society (and safety research) to catch up with the rapid pace of AI development.
- So far this hasn't happened, and it's looked like it won't happen any time soon.
- Will it ever happen?
