Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
One-OffIATecnologiaScienza3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 94.6%
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32
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto18 gen 24, 00:11 UTC2 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
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From the abstract,
- We present GPQA, a challenging dataset of 448 multiple-choice questions written by domain experts in biology, physics, and chemistry.
- We ensure that the questions are high-quality and extremely difficult: experts who have or are pursuing PhDs in the corresponding domains reach 65% accuracy (74% when discounting clear mistakes the experts identified in retrospect), while highly skilled non-expert validators only reach 34% accuracy, despite spending on average over 30 minutes with unrestricted access to the web (i.e., the questions are "Google-proof").
- The questions are also difficult for state-of-the-art AI systems, with our strongest GPT-4 based baseline achieving 39% accuracy.
- This question resolves to YES if a credible paper, blog post, or document of any kind indicates that at least some AI obtained a score of greater than 74.0% on the GPQA dataset before January 1st 2027, and NO otherwise.
- The result must be credible, and I will exclude results that appear to be the result of cheating: for example, results obtained by training on the test set.
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 95% al 21 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027??
- Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: From the abstract,