Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
PoliticaGeopoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAElezione2m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 94.8%
Previsori
60
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto21 ott 24, 21:08 UTC2 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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FutuurRegole
For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
