Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
PoliticaGeopoliticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElezione3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 91.3%
Previsori
58
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto21 ott 24, 21:08 UTC2 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
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For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following:
- Sustained armed conflict: There must be sustained combat or warfare involving at least 500 casualties (fatalities and injuries combined) among U.S. citizens or residents.
- The conflict must take place on U.S. soil.
- Organized factions: The armed conflict must involve at least two organized groups or militias, with at least one faction declaring opposition to the current U.S. federal government, or opposing the recognized governance of at least three states.
- Declared intent to overthrow or disrupt: At least one faction must publicly declare its intent to overthrow or replace the U.S. federal government, or force the secession of multiple states (minimum of three), or otherwise disrupt the national governance structure (e.g., through regional independence).
- Geographical scope: The conflict must involve violent clashes in at least three states or territories within the U.S. (including federal districts).
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 91% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Will a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: For the purposes of this market, a U.S. Civil War is defined as the following: