Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.4%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 44 minuti fa
6 gen 26, 22:55 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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PolymarketRegole
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41144) Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description: This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War has gone into effect during 2026.
- The ceasefire must either
- last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
- be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
- If either the Rapid Support Forces or Sudanese Armed Forces are completely defeated, such that they control no permanent territory, this question will also resolve as Yes.