Se Trump viene eletto, ci sarà un cessate il fuoco in Ucraina prima delle elezioni di metà mandato del 2026?
PoliticaOne-OffPolitica USAGeopoliticaRussia / UcrainaElezione8gManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 07:03 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 97.1%
Previsori
624
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto10 mar 24, 05:16 UTC4 nov 26, 04:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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Manifold MarketsRegole
If Donald Trump does not win the 2024 presidential election or there is a peace treaty signed concluding the Russia-Ukraine war before the election this market will resolve to N/A. If Donald Trump does win the 2024 presidential election:
- This market will resolve to YES if, before November 3rd 2026, there is a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine war that consists of a 30 day period where the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense's daily updates report that less than 100 Russian soldiers have been killed in combat.
- This market will resolve to NO otherwise.
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/ManifoldPolitics/if-harris-is-elected-will-there-be-1bw27ghde1)Update 2025-10-19 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Any cessation of fighting counts, regardless of how it comes about (including surrender scenarios).
- The market will resolve based on whether fighting stops, not the political circumstances that lead to it.
- If the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense appears to be blatantly underreporting casualties, the creator may also consider other reliable sources to determine if fighting is actually ongoing.
