Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Sì 87.3%
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto21 lug 24, 13:42 UTC1 gen 28, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Trump is elected, will there be a ceasefire in Ukraine before the 2026 midterms?
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Manifold Markets$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
Polymarket2028 Democratic presidential nominee
KalshiRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
KalshiRegole
Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.
- It is also part of the republican party platform^2.
- If Trump is elected, will there be no tax on tips by 1st Jan 2028? It doesn't have to be 100% no tax ever paid on any tip but I will resolve according to my wisdom.
- Something like this heuristic: if I go to America to randomish place, and do my normal stuff and pay tips, will at least 70% of instances go lawfully untaxed.
- If Trump is not elected, resolves N/A. 1. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-plan-end-taxes-tips-skepticism-1235062544/ 2. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/documents/2024-republican-party-platform
Mercati aperti
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt100%
- $25M+6.0pt100%
- $50M+12.2pt99%
+11 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,8 Mln €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84%
- Republican Party+1.0pt16%
- Volume totale
- 25,1 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 812,5K €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.3%
- Gavin Newsom13.3%
+45 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 183,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.6pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Volume totale
- 766,5K €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate15.5%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 417,8K €
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.1pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-0.5pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
+16 altri esiti
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
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- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- IA-01 House winner?
- What will Trump say during the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- MN-01 House winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 87% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028??
- If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato If Trump is elected, will there be "no tax on tips" by 2028??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Trump has promised no tax on tips, saying it will be "first thing in office"^1.