[ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027?
GeopoliticaOne-OffRussia / Ukraine3mManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 86.3%
Previsori
39
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto6 gen 26, 22:12 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
When will there be a bilateral ceasefire or peace agreement in the Russo-Ukraine conflict? [METACULUS]
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine win the Russo-Ukrainian War?
Manifold MarketsRusso-Ukrainian War ends officially by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia control the Ukrainian access to the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov at the end of 2026?
FutuurIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRegole
(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.
- Metaculus high-level description:
- This question will resolve as Yes if a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict has gone into effect during 2026.
- The ceasefire must either
- last a minimum of 30 consecutive days entirely during 2026
- be intended to last a minimum of 30 days (or indefinitely), as specified by the agreement text or joint statement, even if it is immediately violated.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 86% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027??
- [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato [ACX 2026] Will there be a bilateral ceasefire in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/embed/41138)Resolves according to Metaculus resolution.