Will there be a civil war with at least 1,000 deaths in Venezuela in 2026?
GeopoliticaOne-OffAmerica Latina3m
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 93%
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Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto3 gen 26, 17:24 UTC31 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
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FutuurRegole
A civil war will be defined as follows:
- There are at least two organized armed groups
- They're fighting for control of the government, territory, or policy
- The conflict reaches a certain scale of violence--defined here as at least 1,000 battle-related deaths in 2026 according to the high end of the range displayed on Wikipedia.
- If deaths only exceed 1,000 after 2026, it doesn't count.