Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 80.3%
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto18 gen 24, 03:14 UTC1 gen 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will AIs beat human experts in question-answering on the GPQA benchmark before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2026?
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PolymarketWill AI beat top Magic the Gathering human player before the end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsNext Claude Opus released on?
PolymarketTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiRegole
I criteri di risoluzione non sono ancora disponibili per questo mercato. Questa sezione verra popolata con i prossimi aggiornamenti quando le regole della fonte saranno salvate.
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETNext Claude Opus released on?
- September 22+41.9pt67.6%
- September 24+1.3pt12.4%
- September 23+0.7pt6.7%
+13 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 218,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 178,7K €
KALSHITime's Person of the Year for 2026
- Zohran Mamdani-1.0pt28%
- Mark Carney-1.0pt18%
- Donald Trump10%
+39 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 1,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-3.0pt70.3%
- ChatGPT+0.4pt13.9%
- Gemini-0.8pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 10,2 Mln €
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+0.1pt98%
- Google-0.3pt1%
- OpenAI+0.3pt1%
+18 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+6.0pt79%
- December 15,+9.0pt74%
- November 30,+8.0pt57%
+7 altri esiti
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Stanley Cup Finals Winner
- U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 80% al 22 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026??
- Will AI beat top human players at Civ6 (without cheating) by EOY 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2027.