Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 91%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 16 ore fa
Obsoleto1 mar 24, 12:27 UTC1 gen 30, 07:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will it be found out by 2052 that a human clone was created before September 5th, 2022, that lived for at least 9 months after conception?
Manifold MarketsWill a human clone be born before the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
KalshiIs there a genetic contribution of at least 50% to the black/white IQ gap in 2023? [Resolves to the popular consensus in 2060]
Manifold MarketsWill "Annoyingly Principled People, and what befall..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRegole
i.e., has a birth certificate and/or whatever other documents identify them as a known person in a given society.
- Stillbirth/ fetal death doesn't count (live birth must occur, even if from an artificial or non-human womb).
- Resolves NO if no clone is born or none that are become citizens.
