Previsione della comunità attuale
No 86%
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1
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 12 minuti fa
27 ott 26, 02:01 UTC1 feb 28, 00:00 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will ANOTHER millennium prize problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhen will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
KalshiWill AI kill >20% of the human population before 2030?
Manifold MarketsSolution or major advances to P=NP with AI help, paper available by mid 2037
Manifold MarketsAll Millennium Prize Problems solved before 2030?
Manifold MarketsAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
PolymarketRegole
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post A cat-belling problem for FDT is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.