Will 10% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
GeopoliticaOne-OffSalute e medicinaEuropa8aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 24 ott 2026, 09:47 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 81.5%
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16
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto5 lug 25, 18:08 UTC30 giu 35, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will 1% of any city (>1m pop) in the EU, UK, or US die in any year from disaster by mid 2035
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Disasters which count
- Nuclear strike or accident
- Infrastructure collapse
- War also counts
- Deaths from old age, traffic, etc don't count unless related.
- A death by disaster is an unintended (by the victim, at a prior state in time) death.
