Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 25 lug 2026, 08:40 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Previsione della comunità attualeBefore September 2026 5.2%-11.0ptIn testa tra 13 esiti
Previsori
64
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato l’altro ieri
Obsoleto8 ago 25, 18:3730 ago 26, 18:36
Trend
0%
0%
0%
0%
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Before August 20262%
Confronta le piattaforme· Before September 2026
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 KalshiMigliore in assoluto90% di corrispondenza · verificato | Bassa | 64% | — | 17,6 € | 18,6K € | 22 minuti fa | Apri → |
| Manifold MarketsQuesta pagina | — | 5% | — | — | — | l’altro ieri |
Disponibile anche su Kalshi
When will xAI release Grok 5?
8.0 pts2m
58.7%
-8.0pt36.7%
4.6%
49 • Bassa qualitàSpread ampioLiquidità mediaAlta ambiguità
Volume totale38,2K €
Volume 24h17,6 €
KALSHIRegole
"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Trend del volume
$5008 lug8g di dati25 lug
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"Grok 5" refers to a model recognized as the successor of Grok 4 in a similar way to how Gemini 3 was the successor to Gemini 2, so Grok 5.0 would count, but Gemini 4.X would not.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
- @8AyI5Np5yl (this market)