Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore February 2027 79.9%In testa tra 5 esiti
Previsori
4
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto31 ago 26, 14:57 UTC1 feb 27, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
The '+' means any version at or above 4.8 counts: if xAI skips 4.8 and releases Grok 4.9 or Grok 5, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Grok 4.8, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-6.5pt85%
- December 15,-5.5pt85%
- November 30,-10.5pt82%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 2,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 55,6K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.8pt68%
- ChatGPT+0.8pt16.5%
- Grok+1.0pt6.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,4 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt92%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-9.0pt89%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-9.0pt83%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETOpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- No IPO by December 31, 2026+4.8pt98%
- 1.5T+-0.9pt2%
- <500B-0.2pt0%
+4 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude91.6%
- ChatGPT+1.0pt1.9%
- Amazon Nova0.9%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 71,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 34,8K €
POLYMARKETWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$900B+10.4pt100%
- ↑$1.0T-4.5pt82%
- ↑$1.25T-10.5pt52%
+12 altri esiti
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- OpenAI IPO by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Most popular AI this week
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- OpenRouter AI token usage: Sep 7–13
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will OpenAI or Anthropic IPO first?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before February 2027 al 80% al 13 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date?
- Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date dovrebbe risolversi il 1 febbraio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Grok 4.8+ (xAI) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The '+' means any version at or above 4.8 counts: if xAI skips 4.8 and releases Grok 4.9 or Grok 5, that still counts for the purpose of this market.