Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2027 41.3%-9.1ptIn testa tra 17 esiti
Previsori
36
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-9.1 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 11 ore fa
Obsoleto8 ago 25, 19:45 UTC31 dic 26, 20:44 UTC
Trend
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next OpenAI GPT Luna (5.7+) released by which date?
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KalshiClaude Opus 5.1+ (Anthropic) release date
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.
- Minor naming changes from the working name 'GPT-OSS' will count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 135,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 102,7K €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,1 Mln €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 325K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 altri esiti
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2027 al 41% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato OpenAI's next "GPT-OSS" release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market refers to OpenAI's next open-weight model release, regardless of what it is ultimately named.