Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale2027 34.2%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
13
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+9.4 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto22 giu 26, 10:41 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsUkraine to concede formal autonomy to the Donbas region in 2026?
FutuurWill Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war
Manifold MarketsWill Åland be an autonomous and demilitarized region of Finland until 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by which date?
PolymarketWill Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to the year (2026, 2027, 2028, 2029, or 2030) in which the Russian Federation establishes complete control over the entire Donbas region.
- If this is not achieved by December 31, 2030, the market will resolve to "Never."
- For the purposes of this market:
- The Donbas region is defined as the combined administrative territories within the official pre-2014 borders of Ukraine's Donetsk Oblast and Luhansk Oblast.
- Complete control means Russian military forces (or proxy forces aligned with Russia) exercise physical control over 100% of the land within the administrative borders of both oblasts.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74%
- New People (NL)-3.0pt22%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 581,3K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.8%
- September 30-3.5pt12.3%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-12.5pt69%
- September 18-14.5pt62%
- September 11-17.5pt51%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 31+1.0pt8%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume totale
- 55,9 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 96,8K €
- Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Next round of US-Iran peace talks by which date?
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.?
- Manifold Markets quota 2027 al 34% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.?
- When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region. dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato When is Russia going to conquer the Donbas region.?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution criteria