Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Later or never 28.6%In testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
6
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto16 feb 24, 17:46 UTC31 dic 28, 22:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will I finish my stuff on time?
Manifold MarketsWill I drop out of my PhD program?
Manifold MarketsWill I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiRegole
I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.
- I will use the defense date as the point at which it is "finished".
Mercati aperti
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31-0.5pt4%
- September 30-0.6pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 59,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 176,8K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202921%
- Before 2028-1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-1.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 29,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 203580%
- Before 2030-9.1pt62%
- Before 2029-7.9pt17%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 271K €
POLYMARKETAI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- No+10.9pt97%
- Yes-10.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 24,2K €
- Volume 24h
- 3,9K €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1-1.5pt75.8%
- 2+0.5pt24.2%
- 3-1.0pt0%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-1.6pt73%
- No27%
- Volume totale
- 302,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 2,8K €
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will be solved next?
- When will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- When will Birch and Swinnerton-Dyer be resolved?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What year will I finish my PhD??
- Manifold Markets quota Later or never al 29% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What year will I finish my PhD??
- What year will I finish my PhD? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2028.
- Come viene liquidato What year will I finish my PhD??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I have been working on it since September 2020, have two publications and one manuscript ready to be published, plus some work-in-progress stuff, and have funding for all of 2024.