Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 97.5%
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24
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto11 gen 25, 21:41 UTC31 mag 30, 06:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will I get a tenure-track job offer straight out of my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will I finish my PhD?
Manifold MarketsWhich colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
KalshiWill the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
Manifold MarketsNew River Gorge recreation visits in 2026
KalshiMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiRegole
I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.
- This question resolves yes if+when I drop out, no if I finish my program (est.
- The main reason I would drop out is if something else seems clearly more impactful or interesting.
- Two things I could imagine fitting this description are working at an EA-aligned research org or doing more direct AI safety work.
- The main reason I wouldn’t drop out is that I’m getting a comfy stipend and have a ton of research flexibility.
- I’m currently running surveys on probabilistic reasoning and forecasting human-AI interaction.
Mercati aperti
AI
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba+2.0pt69%
- Moonshot-9.5pt14%
- Z.ai-2.3pt6%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 75,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 61,5K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+1.3pt68.9%
- ChatGPT+1.9pt15.5%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+2.5pt85.4%
- Moonshot-0.3pt9.7%
- Z.ai-3.4pt1.9%
+8 altri esiti
KALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%98%
- Above 2.55%+18.0pt94%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 61,1K €
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+4.0pt96%
- Above 4.5%+22.0pt43%
- Above 5.6%+2.0pt13%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 altri esiti
- Anthropic IPO by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Best AI this week
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Will I drop out of my PhD program??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 98% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Will I drop out of my PhD program??
- Will I drop out of my PhD program? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 maggio 2030.
- Come viene liquidato Will I drop out of my PhD program??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: I’m a first year PhD student in Behavioral Marketing at UC Berkeley.