Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeeither usajmo or usamo qual 87.1%In testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 4 ore fa
Obsoleto19 ago 26, 03:15 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Regole
note that I plan on applying to all mentioned programs, and competing in all mentioned competitions. if I am not able to apply to a program or compete in a competition, that choice will be marked as resolved and all mana will be refunded.
- the mop and usa(j)mo markets are separate; if I get mop then both mop and usa(j)mo would be resolved as YES.
- 2026 results:
- yeah that's essentially it
- some extra info: been doing OTIS for ~2.5 months straight now and have finished over 20 units (>75% of the problems completed on each one); 13+ B and 7+ D, with plans to finish all "important" OTIS units at B (already somewhat done) and D level before olympiads roll around, totaling around 60
- [over half of this time was spent at Ross where I wasn't able to focus fully on OTIS]
Mercati aperti
Science
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
- Volume 24h
- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math?
- Manifold Markets quota either usajmo or usamo qual al 87% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math?
- what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2027.
- Come viene liquidato what will i achieve this year (2027) in terms of math?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: note that I plan on applying to all mentioned programs, and competing in all mentioned competitions. if I am not able to apply to a program or compete in a competition, that choice will be marked as resolved and all mana will be refunded.