Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
Other 22%In testa tra 12 esiti
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
-2.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto14 ott 23, 16:24 UTC1 gen 51, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will be the next particle discovered outside the Standard Model (2022)?
Manifold MarketsWhich hypothetical elementary particles will be discovered by 2060?
Manifold MarketsWill we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiRegole
What will be the next elementary particle discovered? To count as a discovery, it must be accepted to exist by the physics community.
- Note: For this market, I am defining a WIMP as any fermion with mass that interacts via the weak force but not the strong or electromagnetic forces, isn't a neutrino, and isn't the superpartner of some already known particle.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 226,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 125,2K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 108,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,2K €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 altri esiti
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
- How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per What will be the next elementary particle discovered??
- Manifold Markets quota Other al 22% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve What will be the next elementary particle discovered??
- What will be the next elementary particle discovered? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2051.
- Come viene liquidato What will be the next elementary particle discovered??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: What will be the next elementary particle discovered? To count as a discovery, it must be accepted to exist by the physics community.