This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
FedOne-OffTecnologiaManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 98.5%
Previsori
49
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 15 ore fa
Obsoleto30 set 22, 22:16 UTC2 gen 50, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsNumber of FOMC meetings with FED interest rate cuts in the US in 2026
FutuurBank of Japan interest rate decision — September 2026
FutuurUS basic interest rate at the end of 2026
FutuurRegole
This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.
- Meta comment: This is another "what is the risk free interest rate" market, but testing a very long time period.
- Based on my calculations about loans, I think that there's still a big difference in opportunity cost between a 1-month investment and a 1-year investment, but there actually seems to be only a tiny difference in opportunity cost between a 1-year investment and a 10-year investment.
- (Assuming it's a small part of your portfolio so it doesn't contribute much to the loan cap).
- This is because the vast majority of your opportunity cost is incurred in the first few months - with 2% of your investment being loaned back to you every day, by 365 days less than 0.01% of your investment is still locked up in the market.
- There's another interesting consideration which is how much the long time frame affects questions like whether you and/or Manifold will still be around, etc. (Note that even if I am hit by a bus, Manifold admins have stated and shown that they usually will resolve popular markets eventually if the author is not responsive.)
Mercati aperti
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+1.0pt52.9%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt44.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 34,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,6 Mln €
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt54.5%
- No change-3.0pt44.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt51%
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt43.6%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028+1.0pt85%
- Before July 2027+5.0pt84%
- Before 202773%
- Volume totale
- 3,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 45,5K €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt2%
+10 altri esiti
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No87%
- Yes+3.8pt13%
- Volume totale
- 997K €
- Volume 24h
- 41,2K €
- Fed Decision in October?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question) dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2050.
- Come viene liquidato This question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves NO on or about January 1, 2050.