Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 99%
Previsori
33
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto1 ott 22, 06:06 UTC2 gen 28, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2029
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketThis question will resolve NO on January 1, 2050 (risk free interest rate question)
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
Mercati aperti
SoccerPOLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 24,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,7 Mln €
KALSHIArizona vs Kansas City
- Arizona+3.0pt51.9%
- Kansas City+1.0pt48.1%
- Volume totale
- 867,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 836,5K €
KALSHIIndepend. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama
- Tie+69.0pt98%
- Independ. Santa Fe-43.0pt1%
- Vasco da Gama-25.0pt1%
- Volume totale
KALSHIFluminense vs Platense
- Fluminense+37.0pt98%
- Platense-11.0pt1%
- Tie-23.0pt1%
- Volume totale
KALSHIGuyana Amazon Warriors vs Antigua And Barbuda Falcons
- Guyana Amazon Warriors+4.0pt66.3%
- Antigua And Barbuda Falcons-3.0pt33.7%
- Volume totale
- 514,9K €
- Volume 24h
- 496,9K €
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-0.9pt61.8%
- Lamine Yamal-0.3pt13.7%
- Kylian Mbappé+1.9pt11.8%
+28 altri esiti
- Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Kansas City Royals
- Fluminense vs Platense: Total Goals
- Independ. Santa Fe vs Vasco da Gama: Total Goals
- Arizona vs Kansas City: Home Runs
- Barcelona vs Feyenoord
- Napoli vs Arsenal
- Sporting CP vs. Galatasaray SK
- Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2026?
- FC Barcelona vs. Feyenoord Rotterdam
- Champions League Winner
- Boca Juniors vs Sao Paulo
- PSG vs Slovan Bratislava
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028?
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 99% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028?
- This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 gennaio 2028.
- Come viene liquidato This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2028.