Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 99%
Previsori
35
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 32 minuti fa
1 ott 22, 15:22 UTC2 gen 29, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
This question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2027
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2030
Manifold MarketsThis question will resolve positively on the 1st of January, 2028
Manifold MarketsWealth taxes on HNWIs to be implemented in the United States of America by 1st January 2029?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market resolves positively on the 1st of January, 2029.
- This question is meant to find out whether Manifold users are incentivized to correctly predict on longer-term markets, and, to some extent, what the implied discount rate is.
- Note that with Manifold's lending functionality, the half-life of the cost to invest here is about a month
- Close date updated to 2029-01-01 11:59 pm
