Previsione della comunità attuale
No 80.5%
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 14 ore fa
Obsoleto2 gen 26, 07:49 UTC15 gen 27, 07:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketDid Something “Wild” Just Happen at Open AI?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Sam Altman leave open AI before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketSecond-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
PolymarketRegole
This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026
- It will resolve according to the judgement of the authors.
- If they don't publish a retrospective by the end of February, it will resolve according to my judgement.
Mercati aperti
AI
KALSHIOpen Source market share on Sep 14th
- Above 67.5%99%
- Above 70%+22.0pt99%
- Above 72.5%96%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 63,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 63,6K €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027-3.0pt89%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-5.0pt86%
- Before Feb 1, 2027-8.0pt79%
+9 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.8pt68.6%
- ChatGPT-0.4pt15.7%
- Gemini+0.2pt6.9%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,5 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 15,85%
- December 31,-3.5pt84%
- November 30,-2.0pt76%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETWill any AI model reach ___ Overall Arena Score by September 30?
- 1510+45.5pt100%
- 1520-9.9pt81%
- 1530-0.1pt4%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHIBest AI this week
- Claude89.9%
- Gemini2.8%
- ChatGPT1.8%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 27,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 27,4K €
- Which AI labs commit to third party vetting by October 31?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 81% al 14 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026?
- The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026 dovrebbe risolversi il 15 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato The American open AI frontier will catch up to Chinese models in 2026?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This is a prediction from https://www.understandingai.org/p/17-predictions-for-ai-in-2026