Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 77%
Previsori
24
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto13 mag 26, 21:17 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketPro Baseball new CBA agreement before Dec 2, 2026
KalshiRegole
Will be resolved the same as the similar Polymarket question.
- Polymarket description:
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 77% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket] dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Will be resolved the same as the similar Polymarket question.