Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 92.8%
Previsori
85
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
14 dic 25, 17:18 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
Manifold MarketsRussia-Ukraine ceasefire or peace deal to be reached by the end of 2026?
FutuurRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by Dec 31? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill there be a presidential election in Ukraine, before a ceasefire between it and Russia occurs? (See description)
Manifold MarketsRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- A ceasefire will resolve YES if a formal agreement between Russia and Ukraine to halt hostilities is reached and takes effect at any point during 2026.
- The ceasefire must involve a cessation of military operations along the entire front line, not partial or temporary truces.
- Resolution will be determined by official announcements from the governments of Russia, Ukraine, or the United States, or reporting from major international news outlets (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) confirming the ceasefire has commenced.
- If no such agreement is reached by December 31, 2026, the market resolves NO.
- Renewed negotiations began in 2025 after Donald Trump became president, with Trump's administration broadly agreeing with Russian proposals for ending the war.
