Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 23 lug 2026, 16:00 UTC · criterio pm-quality-2
Previsione della comunità attualeMay 31 0%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
11
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato l’altro ieri
Obsoleto16 mag 26, 16:1431 dic 26, 23:59
Trend
0%
0%
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
October 3114%
Confronta le piattaforme· December 31
Ordinato per qualità del mercato, poi liquidità e volume 24h| Piattaforma | Qualità | Probabilità | vs riferimento | Volume 24h | Liquidità | Aggiornamento | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMigliore in assoluto88% di corrispondenza · verificato | Alta | 36% | — | 37,4K € | 208,8K € | 18 minuti fa | Apri → |
| Polymarket88% di corrispondenza · auto | Media | 25% | — | 4,7K € | 124,5K € | 18 minuti fa | Apri → |
| Manifold MarketsQuesta pagina | — | 21% | — | — | — | l’altro ieri |
Disponibile anche su Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5%5m
25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 altri esiti
73 • Qualità mediaSpread ampioAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità
Volume totale797,3K €
Volume 24h4,7K €
POLYMARKETDisponibile anche su Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
3.5%5m
-0.5%36%
-3.5%19%
-1.5%8%
+2 altri esiti
89 • Alta qualitàSpread moderatoAlta liquiditàAlta ambiguità
Volume totale5 Mln €
Volume 24h37,4K €
POLYMARKETRegole
Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.
I dati di confronto sono solo informativi. I prezzi e la liquidità possono variare.
Grandi operazioni
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka3 gg fa
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka3 gg fa$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321 gg fa
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321 gg fa$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedsta26 gg fa
POLYMARKETNonedsta26 gg faTrend del volume
$6018 lug4g di dati23 lug
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Follows resolution of https://polymarket.com/event/russia-x-ukraine-ceasefire-by This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at least 10 calendar days.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A ceasefire refers to any mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries, and which constitutes a general suspension of direct kinetic military engagement across the primary theater of the overall conflict.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause (including holiday ceasefires) will count provided they otherwise qualify under this market’s rules.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire.
- Agreements which only apply to specific conflict categories (e.g. restrictions on certain target categories or certain locations) will not qualify.