Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 89.6%
Previsori
31
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto31 mar 26, 09:54 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Asset Sensibili al Macro
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Resolves YES iff the ABS reports negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, chain volume, q/q, catalogue 5206.0) for two consecutive quarters in 2026 (Q1+Q2 or Q2+Q3 or Q3+Q4).
- Only the value for each quarter at its initial release counts for this market.
- Subsequent revisions do not.
- Exactly 0.0% is not negative.
Mercati aperti
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt78.4%
- No change20.6%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 121,4 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,6 Mln €
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Volume totale
- 3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 9,5K €
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -9.0% of GDP-6.0pt92%
- Above -8.5% of GDP-10.0pt85%
- Above -8.0% of GDP65%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 31K €
KALSHIRecession in 2027?
- No80%
- Yes-2.0pt20%
- Volume totale
- 346,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,1K €
KALSHIUnited Kingdom’s government budget balance in 2026
- Above -5.5% of GDP-4.0pt90%
- Above -5.0% of GDP+2.0pt83%
- Above -4.5% of GDP+4.0pt69%
+4 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHIPennsylvania annual-average manufacturing employment in 2026
- Above 545,000 jobs93%
- Above 550,000 jobs+2.0pt88%
- Above 555,000 jobs+1.0pt57%
+3 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 48,4K €
- GDP growth in 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- CPI in September
- Government shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- Unemployment in September
- US real GDP growth in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?
- US economic state at the end of 2026?
- Will the US Unemployment Rate exceed 4% in September 2026?
- France’s government budget balance in 2026
- 2026: Trump's dream year?
Cripto correlate
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Recessione in Australia nel 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 90% al 13 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Recessione in Australia nel 2026??
- Recessione in Australia nel 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Recessione in Australia nel 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolves YES iff the ABS reports negative real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted, chain volume, q/q, catalogue 5206.0) for two consecutive quarters in 2026 (Q1+Q2 or Q2+Q3 or Q3+Q4).