Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeUnyielding Islamic Regime 34.6%In testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
19
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo12 mar 26, 03:08 UTC30 giu 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Manifold thinks the Iranian regime is in a stronger position on the anniversary of the start of Operation Epic Fury
Manifold MarketsU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by which date?
PolymarketIsrael ground operation in Iran confirmed by which date?
PolymarketWill China launch a military operation against Taiwan in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a military operation to slow down AI development by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsDario Amodei arrested by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves to the outcome that best describes Iran's political situation by end of 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by assessing the primary governing structure and power dynamics in Iran as of December 31, 2026, based on credible reporting from international news sources, government statements, and expert analysis.
- the named outcome: The clerical system remains in control with minimal structural change to governance or ideology, effectively no concessions to the coalition or protestors.
- Pre war status quo or even more radicalism.
- Deal with minor concessions: A negotiated settlement between the regime and the coalition/protestors, involving small compromises on nuclear program, sanctions relief, or political reforms, equal to or inferior to the Obama Deal.
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Manifold Markets quota Unyielding Islamic Regime al 35% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026): dovrebbe risolversi il 30 giugno 2027.
- Come viene liquidato Outcome of Operation Epic Fury (Iran 2026):?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Resolution Criteria