Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeBefore 2026-12-01 80.8%+30.8ptIn testa tra 7 esiti
Previsori
7
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+30.8 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
9 set 26, 17:40 UTC1 dic 26, 04:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Next Muse Spark (1.4+) released by which date?
Polymarket'Watermelon' LLM (Meta) release date
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release Llama 5 this year?
KalshiWill OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Meta release a model with context window >= 5M tokens before Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Meta release a smartwatch in 2026?
Manifold MarketsGrand Theft Auto VI: Release date
KalshiRegole
The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Muse Spark 1.4, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
Mercati aperti
AIKALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-2.0pt58%
- ChatGPT-3.3pt21%
- Grok+0.6pt8%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 93,6K €
POLYMARKETAI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- 2027+7.5pt76%
- 2026+27.5pt48%
- September 30, 2026+10.0pt19%
KALSHIWhat will Spotify CEO say during Goldman Sachs Communacopia?
- Anthropic / Claude+27.0pt99%
- Video+27.0pt99%
- Royalty / Licensing+63.0pt99%
+14 altri esiti
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.0pt69.7%
- Moonshot-1.0pt25.3%
- Z.ai+1.8pt3%
+8 altri esiti
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+1.5pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 4.1%+8.0pt99%
- Above 3.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.2%99%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 45,2K €
- What will Macy's say during their next earnings call?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic market share this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- OpenAI market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date?
- Manifold Markets quota Before 2026-12-01 al 81% al 10 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date?
- Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date dovrebbe risolversi il 1 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato Muse Spark 1.4+ (Meta) release date?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The '+' means any version at or above 1.4 counts: if Meta skips 1.4 and releases Muse Spark 1.5 or Muse Spark 2, that still counts for the purpose of this market.