Manifold MarketsChiusoSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoQuesto mercato è chiuso e in attesa di una risoluzione confermata.
Risolto: 12 ott 2026, 18:00
Dati di risoluzione non verificati
Questo esito è inferito o non supportato da prove di regolamento di livello provider.
Avviso sulla qualità dei datiDati obsoleti
Dati al 13 ott 2026, 12:32 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Cronologia delle Probabilità
Before 2026-10-010%
Before 2026-10-16100%
Before 2026-11-01100%
Before 2026-11-16100%
Before 2026-12-01100%
Before 2026-12-16100%
Risultato in attesa
Risultato in attesa
Risultato in attesa
Risultato in attesa
Risultato in attesa
Risultato in attesa
Mercati Correlati
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KalshiRegole
This market resolves based on the release of Meta's model currently codenamed 'Watermelon'.
- Any name under which this model is ultimately released — whether 'Watermelon', 'Muse Spark 2', or another name — will count, as long as it is generally understood to be the model currently being developed under that codename.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.
