Previsione della comunità attuale
2025-2034 30.7%+0.2ptIn testa tra 6 esiti
Previsori
22
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+0.2 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 minuti fa
23 mar 25, 14:56 UTC1 gen 01, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2050?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2045?
Manifold MarketsWill a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number before 2040?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the first useful quantum computer be developed?
KalshiWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketRegole
The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.
- Factoring it with a general-purpose quantum computer (i.e., one that runs Shor’s algorithm at scale) would mark the end of today’s form of public-key cryptography.
- Resolution criteria
- Evidence required – A peer-reviewed paper in a recognized scientific journal showing that only a quantum computer was used to factor the full RSA-2048 challenge number.
- Quantum-computer build timing – The bracket corresponding to the year in which the demonstration is published resolves "YES" and the market closes immediately.
- Example: if the paper is dated 2035, the 2035-2039 bracket resolves "YES" and all others resolve "NO" based on the publication date.
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 211K €
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- 110,5K €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 21,3K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
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KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 104,9K €
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets quota 2025-2034 al 31% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number? dovrebbe risolversi il 1 gennaio 2101.
- Come viene liquidato In what year will a quantum computer factor the RSA-2048 challenge number??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: The RSA-2048 challenge number is a 617-digit semiprime published by RSA Laboratories.