Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiBen calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeAI winter 33.1%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
29
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 ore fa
Obsoleto2 lug 25, 14:51 UTC30 dic 34, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
In which years will humanity still exist? (2050 to 1 million AD)
Manifold MarketsWill humanity still exist in 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Joe Biden still be alive at the beginning of 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhat will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsWill there be an international moratorium on frontier AGI development by EOY 2033?
Manifold MarketsRegole
By default, continued AI development is assumed to lead to existential catastrophe.
- If we survive until 2035, this market asks: what kind of world are we in?
- This is a retrospective counterfactual question: imagine it is January 1st, 2035, and humanity is still alive.
- What explains our survival?
- Resolution Criteria: On December 30th, 2035, this market will resolve to the option that best describes the primary reason humanity avoided extinction by that date.
- Resolution will be based on public evidence and expert consensus to the extent possible.
