What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
5.4 pt (24h)RegolamentazioneOne-OffMacro ed economiaTecnologiaSpazioEconomiaIAGeopoliticaCinaAmerica LatinaSalute e medicina3aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeA country officially transitions to 100% renewable energy for electricity. 81.7%-5.4ptIn testa tra 16 esiti
Previsori
15
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+31.7 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 5 ore fa
Obsoleto11 ott 26, 03:29 UTC31 dic 29, 11:00 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will happen in the world in the 2030s
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Manifold MarketsRegole
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this market resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event occurs on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC:
- A human lands on Mars: Resolves YES if a crewed space mission successfully lands a living human on the surface of Mars.
- A major global economy adopts a central bank digital currency (CBDC): Resolves YES if a top-10 economy by nominal GDP (e.g., US, China, Eurozone members, Japan, UK, India, Brazil) officially launches and deploys a retail or commercial CBDC nationally.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by a major research body: Resolves YES if a major AI research institution (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or an international body like AAAI) formally announces that an AI system has achieved human-level general intelligence.
- A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a habitat intended for sustained or recurring human presence (e.g., NASA Artemis Base Camp or the International Lunar Research Station) is operational on the lunar surface.
