What will happen in the world in the 2030s
32.9 pt (24h)CinaOne-OffIATecnologiaSalute e medicinaSpazio13aManifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeThe world population exceeds 8.5 billion 82.9%+32.9ptIn testa tra 9 esiti
Previsori
3
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+32.9 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 9 ore fa
Obsoleto11 ott 26, 08:34 UTC31 dic 39, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
Manifold MarketsWhich positive news category will make 2026 world-wide headlines?
Manifold MarketsWill Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich Money & Macro megatrends for 2026 will be correct?
Manifold MarketsAI bubble burst by which date?
PolymarketWill a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?
PolymarketRegole
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves each option independently to YES if the specified event occurs or condition is met between January 1, 2030, and December 31, 2039, and NO otherwise.
- Standard resolutions will be determined using official data from recognized international institutions, government bodies, or reputable news reporting.
- Another global covid-scale pandemic: Resolves YES if the World Health Organization (WHO) formally declares a global pandemic or Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) for a pathogen that leads to widespread global travel restrictions or global reported mortality exceeding 1 million deaths during the 2030s.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major independent governance tracking organizations (e.g., Freedom House or the V-Dem Institute) classify all sovereign nations worldwide as non-democratic or authoritarian.
- the named outcome: Resolves YES if major AI research organizations or professional bodies (e.g., OpenAI, Anthropic, Google DeepMind, or AAAI) formally announce or reach scientific consensus that a system meets an established operational definition of AGI.