If China invades Taiwan will the invasion be successful? [No Survivorship Bias]
GeopoliticaOne-OffCina
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 55%
Previsori
48
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 10 ore fa
Obsoleto24 feb 24, 00:52 UTC1 gen 00, 00:57 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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KalshiRegole
WARNING: Unlike most conditional markets, I will not necessarily cancel this market when the deadline hits.
- If at the end of the century China has substantially the same policy toward Taiwan (i.e. that annexation would be in principle good), I will assume that the chinese leadership assessed their prospects, decided such an invasion would fail, and chose not to go through with it.
- I will therefore resolve NO.
- Here's a similar market without that clause: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-they-s.
- I created this market when my search didn't turn up Isaac's, but when I noticed the difference in approaches, decided to leave this one up as an experiment.
- Feel free to fill my limit order over there.