If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
One-OffGeopoliticaCinaPolitica USAPolitica
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 25 ott 2026, 20:05 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 54.1%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 2 ore fa
Obsoleto3 ago 23, 15:30 UTC31 dic 99, 22:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
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This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.
- This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends.
- If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES.
- Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A.