Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly??

Manifold Markets quota No al 55.4% al 28 ottobre 2026.

If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?

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Aggiornato 12 minuti fa

1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC31 dic 99, 22:59 UTC

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This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.

This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends.
If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES.
Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A. (Identical market to: source market)