Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeNo 58.3%
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4
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 6 ore fa
Obsoleto1 ago 26, 16:23 UTC31 dic 99, 22:59 UTC
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly?
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KalshiRegole
This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.
- This question will resolve after the conflict between China and Taiwan ends.
- If there is still fighting on the island after multiple years and the US intervenes much later in the war, this still resolves YES.
- Direct intervention requires US forces engaging Chinese ones, this can include and is not limited to: Engaging Chinese naval assets, deploying boots on the ground in Taiwan, missile strikes on Chinese military bases, etc. Update 2026-04-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If China gains control of Taiwan through political (non-military) means, the market resolves N/A. (Identical market to: source market)
Mercati aperti
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 22,2 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 470,8K €
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 altri esiti
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Volume totale
- 35,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1K €
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 altri esiti
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 altri esiti
- Volume totale
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Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly??
- Manifold Markets quota No al 58% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly??
- If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2099.
- Come viene liquidato If China invades Taiwan, will the United States intervene directly??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This question will remain open perpetually until its resolution unless China, Taiwan or the US stop existing.