Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran pre-emptively nuke Israel?
GeopoliticaOne-OffMedio Oriente4a
Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiDati della fonte degradati
Dati al 26 ott 2026, 06:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
Previsione della comunità attualeNo 86.1%
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10
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto20 mar 26, 23:27 UTC1 gen 31, 00:26 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Conditional on Iran developing a nuclear weapon, will Iran nuke Israel?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran have a nuclear weapon by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use a nuclear weapon in combat by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be used or tested by 2030
Manifold MarketsIran Nuke before 2027?
PolymarketWill a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
PolymarketRegole
Resolves yes if Iran builds a nuclear weapon and then pre-emptively nukes Israel, without Israel first nuking Iran.
- Resolves N/A if Iran does not develop a nuclear weapon.