Will a US ally get a nuke before 2027?
US PoliticsPoliticaOne-OffGeopoliticaMiddle EastRussia / UkraineEurope5m
PolymarketVerifica disponibilitàSenza KYC2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attualeSì 7%
Qualita del mercato
71 / 100
Qualità mediaVolume 24h
123,4 €
Liquidità
14,4K €
Liquidità mediaBid / Ask
7.2% / 7.4%
Spread
2.8%
Spread strettoVariazione 7g
+0.1%
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 19 minuti fa
13 nov 25, 23:1231 dic 26, 0:00
Trend
Solo fondi simulati, nessun denaro realeNon è consulenza finanziaria
Esito scelto
Yes7%
Trend del volume
$1402 lug21g di dati26 lug
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if credible reports from international nuclear agencies, a claimant government, or a consensus of credible global news sources officially confirm that a US ally which did not possess nuclear weapons as of November 12, 2025, possesses a nuclear weapon by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- If a US ally participates in a nuclear sharing agreement that does not include independent control over nuclear weapons, this will not qualify for "Yes" resolution.
- Only full control over an operational nuclear weapon will count.
- Any admission from Israel of the possession of a nuclear weapon will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- For the purposes of this market, a "US ally" is defined as a country that is a member of NATO or a Major Non-NATO Ally (https://www.state.gov/major-non-nato-ally-status/) as of November 12, 2025.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".