Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 64.7%
Previsori
21
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 13 ore fa
Obsoleto10 mar 25, 13:25 UTC31 dic 30, 21:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Nuclear weapon used offensively in 2026
Manifold MarketsWill a nuclear weapon be used in a war by the end of this decade?
Manifold MarketsA nuclear weapon is used in any conflict before January 1, 2029
Manifold MarketsNuclear weapon used offensively before 2100?
Manifold MarketsNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketRegole
This market will resolve to YES, If any nuclear weapon is used before or in 2030.
- This includes weapons not used in war.
- Such as in a test.
- This includes smaller yield weapons, that are not necessarily as bombastic as an intercontinental ballistic missiles, (what's important is the payload)
- This DOES NOT include nuclear powered weapons, such as air-craft carriers or submarines (as they don't even fall under my definition of a weapon, and are considered weapon platforms)