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Dati al 26 ott 2026, 13:11 UTC · criterio pm-quality-4
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No 90.5%
No 90.5%Previsori
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Aggiornato 3 ore fa
Obsoleto18 feb 24, 13:33 UTC1 gen 31, 05:59 UTC
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Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
US confirms use of nuclear earth-penetrating weapon in combat by end of 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhat country will first denote a nuclear weapon in combat?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use nuclear weapons against Israel before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran use Nuclear weapons?
Manifold MarketsWill the GOP use 'Nuclear Option' to break filibuster by which date?
PolymarketNew nuclear weapon tests in 2026?
FutuurRegole
Resolves yes if Iran detonates or attempts to detonate a nuclear weapon against an enemy country or force by December 31, 2030.
- Of course, this is related to the question whether Iran will develop a nuclear weapon by 2030.
- (See https://manifold.markets/BenjaminIkuta/will-iran-have-a-nuclear-weapon-by-958ce4dc195c).
- Will resolve no if Iran does not have any nuclear weapons.