Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attuale
No 92.9%
Previsori
17
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 20 ore fa
Obsoleto25 nov 22, 02:05 UTC31 dic 29, 05:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Severe nuclear accident in the Zaporizhzhia plant in 2026?
FutuurIAEA-confirmed radioactive contamination accident by the end of 2026?
FutuurWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill a millennium problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegole
This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.
- Close date updated to 2029-12-30 11:59 pm
Mercati aperti
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+11.2pt86%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029-33.9pt55%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 227,4K €
- Volume 24h
- 95,3K €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.4pt5%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30-0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 altri esiti
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
- Before 2030-19.0pt44%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 109,1K €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volume totale
- 1,6 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 8K €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0+3.0pt46.1%
- Above 1+20.0pt38.5%
- Above 2-6.0pt7.7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- Major volcano eruption in 2026?
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Manifold Markets quota No al 93% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2029.
- Come viene liquidato Civilian nuclear accident in the US before 2030?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: This market shall resolve to Yes in the event that a civilian nuclear energy accident takes place in the US before 2030 which is judged to be responsible for at least one death within one year.