Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeExponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe 31%In testa tra 4 esiti
Previsori
12
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
0.0 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 1 ora fa
In ritardo8 mar 26, 07:17 UTC31 dic 33, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
If Trump wins, will the US government enact legislation that significantly slows down AI progress?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump publicly call for a global halt in AI progress before 2028?
Manifold MarketsPossible outcomes of the bet on AI progress between Gary Marcus and Miles Brundage
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketDeepSeek market share this week
KalshiRegole
Main factors for this
- Valuations + Revenues of Labs (OpenAI, Anthropic showing ~exponential growth in ARR and funding)
- Overall economic status (employment, GDP growth etc)
- Benchmarks (e.g. METR, ECI, AA) which have generally improved at a roughly constant rate with that rate increasing (roughly double) since mid 2024
- [image]Leaving Other for A. Sublinear (e.g. fraudulent, waste of money) bubble pops (idk FTX, NFT, type things).
- Though I think bubble popping similar to dot com might still be linear growth overall, just that the expectation of exponential leads to valuations popping, and other things like AI takeover (seems more aligned with Hyperexponential since we’re discussing AI progress rather than human progress) and or pausing AI development “early” idk, basically anything that doesn’t fit neatly into
Mercati aperti
AIPOLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba-3.5pt84.6%
- Moonshot+4.7pt10.6%
- Z.ai+0.3pt1.9%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 410,1K €
- Volume 24h
- 56,4K €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.4pt70%
- ChatGPT-0.8pt15%
- Gemini+0.1pt7%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 9,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt87%
- December 15,+1.0pt84%
- November 30,+6.0pt79%
+7 altri esiti
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%91%
- Above 4.5%+19.0pt41%
- Above 5.6%+10.0pt20%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 58,4K €
KALSHIDeepSeek market share this week
- Above 22.7%99%
- Above 21.7%99%
- Above 23.6%-1.0pt95%
+6 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 70K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETWill Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- ↑$1.25T+1.3pt100%
- ↑$1.1T+3.6pt100%
- ↑$1.0T+2.4pt100%
+10 altri esiti
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Best AI this week
- OpenAI announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Next Claude Opus released by which date?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Best AI in Sep 2026?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic market share this week
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- Manifold Markets quota Exponential (similar to 2020 to 2026), indicates some proto-AGI likely in that timeframe al 31% al 17 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033 dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2033.
- Come viene liquidato AI Progress Trajectory from 2028 to 2033?
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Main factors for this