Previsione della comunità attuale
Down 5% to 14% 30.4%+12.6ptIn testa tra 8 esiti
Previsori
20
Tipo di domanda
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Variazione 7g
+12.6 pts
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 7 ore fa
Obsoleto15 dic 25, 23:2931 dic 26, 23:59
Trend
Regole
Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.
- AI bubbles correction? interest rate cuts?
- Note these are days and hours in which the U.S. market is open, and not any after hours trading, or trading on international markets in different time
- Resolution criteria
- The market resolves based on the percentage change of the S&P 500 between the opening price on the first trading day of 2026 and the closing price on the last trading day of 2026.
- Only regular market hours (9:30 AM - 4:00 PM ET) count; after-hours trading is excluded.
Mercati aperti
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- No change+11.0pt57.3%
- 25 bps increase-9.0pt40.8%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 74,7 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 5,4 Mln €
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Fed maintains rate+11.0pt54.8%
- Hike 25bps-11.0pt41.4%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 28,7 Mln €
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.3pt89%
- 1 (25 bps)8%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.4pt3%
+10 altri esiti
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed maintains rate+12.0pt55%
- Hike 25bps-10.0pt38.9%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt2.4%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-1.0pt67.3%
- 25 bps increase26%
- 25 bps decrease+1.4pt4.8%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHINext Fed rate hike?
- Before 2028-2.0pt84%
- Before July 2027-5.0pt78%
- Before 2027-6.0pt68%
+1 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 4,2 Mln €
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decision in September?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Will the Fed raise the rate 25bps in September 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026??
- Manifold Markets quota Down 5% to 14% al 30% al 4 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026??
- 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026? dovrebbe risolversi il 31 dicembre 2026.
- Come viene liquidato 2026 U.S. Stock Market: How will the S&P500 performance in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Simple question: what will be the percentage difference between the S&P500 at the opening bell on the first trading day of 2026, compared to the closing bell on the last trading day of 2026.