Manifold MarketsSenza KYCDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoPrevisione della comunità attualeSì 57.8%
Previsori
14
Tipo di domanda
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo di fonte
Previsione
Dati di mercato
Aggiornato 18 ore fa
Obsoleto30 lug 25, 23:27 UTC4 gen 27, 23:59 UTC
Trend
Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.
Mercati aperti
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume totale
- 9,8 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 16,5K €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt19%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Volume totale
- 507,6K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7K €
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Anthony Fauci-2.0pt35%
- John Brennan+1.0pt34%
- Ilhan Omar+3.0pt18%
+38 altri esiti
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No70.3%
- Yes29.7%
- Volume totale
- 358K €
- Volume 24h
- 5,1K €
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt8%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan+2.0pt26%
- Letitia James+8.9pt15%
- Anthony Fauci+1.0pt14%
+21 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
- Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per 2026 Congressional candidate arrested??
- Manifold Markets quota Yes al 58% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve 2026 Congressional candidate arrested??
- 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? dovrebbe risolversi il 4 gennaio 2027.
- Come viene liquidato 2026 Congressional candidate arrested??
- Manifold Markets liquida questo mercato come segue: Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.