KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoAvviso sulla qualità dei datiNessuna attività di trading
Dati al 8 set 2026, 17:50 UTC · criterio pm-quality-3
Probabilità implicita attuale
Above $500 billion 0%In testa tra 8 esiti
Qualità del mercato
39 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
—
Liquidità
—
Liquidità sconosciutaSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
26 ago 26, 19:00 UTC7 feb 33, 13:29 UTC
Trend
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
Regole
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2032.
Mercati aperti
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 89,5 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 Mln €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 323,8K €
- Volume 24h
- 25,3K €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 523K €
- Volume 24h
- 22K €
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+1.0pt54.3%
- September Meeting+3.0pt45.7%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
POLYMARKETArgentina Monthly Inflation - August
- 1.5-1.7%-9.9pt68.8%
- 1.8-2.0%+8.2pt26%
- 1.2-1.4%-3.0pt3.1%
+5 altri esiti
KALSHIWill the Citrini scenario happen?
- No83%
- Yes17%
- Volume totale
- 22,3 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 4,4K €
- August Inflation US - Annual
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- August Inflation US - Monthly
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core PCE YoY - August 2026
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.4% in August 2026?
- Will the year-over-year change in the US Core CPI exceed 2.2% in August 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- Egg prices up in August?
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US trade deficit for 2032?
- Kalshi quota Above $500 billion al 0% al 8 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US trade deficit for 2032?
- US trade deficit for 2032 dovrebbe risolversi il 7 febbraio 2033.
- Come viene liquidato US trade deficit for 2032?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2032 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.