KalshiVerifica disponibilitàKYC richiesto2% di commissioneDati di risoluzione verificatiDiscretamente calibratoProbabilità implicita attuale
Above $600 billion 100%In testa tra 8 esitiCorretto per il margine: le quote grezze sommavano oltre il 100% e sono state normalizzate.
Qualità del mercato
45 / 100
Bassa qualitàVolume 24h
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Liquidità
1,7 €
Bassa liquiditàSpread
4.0 pt
Spread moderatoDati di mercato
Aggiornato 8 minuti fa
26 ago 26, 19:00 UTC2 feb 32, 13:29 UTC
Trend
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Mercati Correlati
Domande correlate per il contesto, non un confronto tra contratti equivalenti.
Regole
If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.
Si regola tramite:U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census Bureau
- The Underlying is the nominal goods and services balance on a balance-of-payments basis.
- It will not use the goods-only deficit, the advance goods report, the December monthly deficit, or inflation-adjusted trade data.
- Because the agencies generally report the balance as a negative number, the market will use the absolute size of the deficit.
- For example, an annual trade balance of −$800.1 billion constitutes a trade deficit of $800.1 billion.
- Resolution will use the first annual estimate published in the release covering December of 2031.
Mercati aperti
Inflation
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.1pt1%
+2 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 91 Mln €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 Mln €
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.7%+1.0pt99%
- Above 2.9%99%
- Above 2.5%99%
+23 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 569,7K €
- Volume 24h
- 47,4K €
KALSHICPI in August
- Above 0.1%+2.0pt99%
- Above -0.4%+1.0pt99%
- Above -0.3%99%
+12 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 359,2K €
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETFed rate hike by which date?
- October Meeting+3.0pt54.5%
- September Meeting+2.0pt45.5%
- April Meeting-0.1pt0%
+2 altri esiti
KALSHINYC median asking rent in December 2026
- Above $3,80095%
- Above $3,900+1.0pt82%
- Above $4,00044%
+5 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 79,7K €
- Volume 24h
KALSHICPI core in August
- Above 0.0%99%
- Above 0.1%+5.0pt86%
- Above 0.2%36%
+8 altri esiti
- Volume totale
- 18,3K €
- Volume 24h
- 7,3K €
- CPI year-over-year in Aug 2026?
- Fed rate hike in 2026?
- Core CPI MoM - August 2026
- CPI in September
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)
- CPI-U index in August
- How high will inflation get in 2026?
- State of the economy at the end of 2026
- Core CPI YoY - August 2026
- Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)
- August 2026 CPI MoM Combo: Headline & Core
Domande frequenti
- Quali sono le probabilità attuali per US trade deficit for 2031?
- Kalshi quota Above $600 billion al 100% al 9 settembre 2026.
- Quando si risolve US trade deficit for 2031?
- US trade deficit for 2031 dovrebbe risolversi il 2 febbraio 2032.
- Come viene liquidato US trade deficit for 2031?
- Kalshi liquida questo mercato come segue: If the U.S. goods and services deficit for calendar year 2031 is strictly the named outcome dollars, then the market resolves to Yes.